According to Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous trader, there might be a final opportunity for investors to purchase Bitcoin at discounted prices. Any potential price retracement in the next two weeks could be seen as a chance to buy Bitcoin at lower prices before a pre-halving rally commences in February. Rekt Capital explains that the Bitcoin halving, which is scheduled for April, involves reducing mining rewards for Bitcoin miners and is generally considered a catalyst for a bullish price trend. Noting that Bitcoin has already experienced an 18% pullback in January, Rekt Capital suggests that there is a two-week window for another significant drop in Bitcoin’s price. This retracement period is seen as one of the last opportunities to acquire Bitcoin at favorable prices before the halving.
After the retracement, Bitcoin typically enters a phase called the “pre-halving rally” around 60 days before the actual halving event. During this period, short-term traders tend to buy Bitcoin based on the hype surrounding the halving, only to sell around the time of the event. Rekt Capital illustrates this pattern on a graph, showing a rally followed by a dip. The “sell the news” phase occurs one to three weeks before the halving and is known as the “pre-halving retrace.” In previous halvings, such retracements have resulted in significant price dips, such as a 38% drop in 2016 and a 20% drawdown in 2020.
Following a successful halving, Rekt Capital describes a phase of relatively stagnant price action, which can last around 150 days. Many investors may become disappointed during this period, leading to a decline in market participation. However, after this period, Bitcoin enters a “parabolic uptrend” phase characterized by accelerated growth. While Rekt Capital sees the halving as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price action, some experts argue that other factors, such as liquidity, may play a more significant role.
Overall, Rekt Capital suggests that investors should consider any price retracement in the coming weeks as a potential opportunity to buy Bitcoin at discounted prices before the anticipated halving rally in February.