The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve all 12 pending applications for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the next week, according to Bloomberg ETF analysts. The analysts said that the SEC has a “window” from Nov. 9 to Nov. 17 to approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings, including the conversion of Grayscale’s GBTC trust product, but noted that this is only a possibility.
The reason for this window is that the SEC extended the deadline for several spot Bitcoin ETF filings to Nov. 8, which was the last day of the comment period. From Nov. 17, the comment period for three other filings would resume, meaning that they would not be approved or rejected until after Nov. 23 at the earliest.
The analysts said that if the SEC wants to allow all 12 filers to launch, this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory over the SEC was affirmed. Grayscale won a lawsuit against the SEC in August, challenging the agency’s authority to regulate its GBTC product.
The analysts also said that they still believe there is a 90% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by Jan. 10, 2024, based on the legal and public relations pressure on the SEC. They said that the SEC would struggle to justify further denials after the unanimous and decisive ruling by the court in favor of Grayscale.
The SEC has already approved two futures-based Bitcoin ETFs, which began trading in October. However, many investors and experts prefer spot-based Bitcoin ETFs, which would track the actual price of Bitcoin rather than futures contracts. Spot-based Bitcoin ETFs are expected to have lower fees and higher liquidity than futures-based ones.
The SEC has not given any clear indication of its stance on spot-based Bitcoin ETFs, but some observers speculate that the agency is waiting for more regulatory clarity and market stability before making a decision. The SEC has also expressed concerns about the potential for market manipulation, fraud, and investor protection issues in the crypto space.
The approval of a spot-based Bitcoin ETF would be a major milestone for the crypto industry, as it would provide more access and exposure to Bitcoin for mainstream investors. It could also boost the demand and price of Bitcoin, as well as the adoption and innovation of crypto-related products and services.